16 Down 15 To Go

The group stages are over so it seems like a good time to do a little looking back and a little looking forward. So that’s what I’m going to do, about everything and anything World Cup (except for the U.S. team. I am way way way too emotionally invested in the Yanks to write coherently about them. Besides, by the time you read this they will have either beaten or lost to Ghana, and I will be either elated or crushed. When their run is over I’ll attempt to sum it all up). For now though, let’s look at some story lines.

The Big Four
England, France, Germany and Italy are the only four European nations who have won the World Cup. Half of them are already out, with France imploding in spectacular fashion and Italy giving up more than twice as many goals as it did during its run to the title 4 years ago. But, I suppose that’s bound to happen when you mail in the first 260 of the 270 minutes you play in the group stage. What a last ten minutes it was though, with Italy almost erasing a 2-0, and then 3-1 deficit, only to lose 3-2 when a last second shot dribble harmlessly wide. England and Germany meanwhile play each other in the round of 16. And while before the tournament big things were expected of England, and Germany was thought to be young and untested, that has not held true in the first three matches. Das Boots look much livelier and more dangerous than the lads. But, as always, past performance is no guarantee yadda yadda.

The Other Four
There are four other European teams still alive, and as luck would have it, they play each other as well, with Spain facing off against Portugal, and the Netherlands facing Slovakia. Despite being perennial World Cup under achievers, Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands are all dominant world sides. The Dutch have cruised so far, winning each game in their group in comfortable if not spectacular form, and as their reward they get Slovakia. And while Slovakia did beat Italy, that may say more about the sorry state of the Azzurri than anything else.

And then there's Spain and Portugal. After starting slowly, Spain has looked every inch the potential champion side its last two matches, easily handling Honduras and Chile. Although to be fair Chile played most of the match down to ten men. Portugal meanwhile hasn’t allowed a goal yet. That’s impressive until you consider that they haven’t scored a goal against anybody who doesn’t believe that Kim Jong Ill communicates with little invisible cell phones either. In the best of worlds this will be one of the best match ups of the round of 16 with the unstoppable force of Spain throwing itself against the immovable object of Portugal. In the worst of worlds Spain will kick the ball around for two hours for a 0-0 draw, and then hope to win in penalty kicks.

No, The Other South A.
Somewhere the sporting powers that be apparently made a typo. While South Africa is the host nation, who traditionally doesn’t lose in the group stages, it is actually all of South America that remains uneliminated. While Brazil and Argentina are no surprise, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile all advanced as well. Not only did TOSA (the other South A) go 5 for 5, but Chile was the only one of the teams to not win its group. As such, they’re penalty is playing Brazil, probably the most dominant looking team in the tournament so far. The other three teams are scattered to the far corners of the bracket though, which allows for the possibility of an all TOSA semi-finals. And while Paraguay is a long shot, first facing a surprisingly game Japan team, and then having to face the winner of the Iberian rumble, Argentina and Uruguay both have every reason to believe they’ll be standing with two matches to go.

The Rest of the Best
I ran out of fingers somewhere in the last section, but my best guess is that I still have five teams I haven’t mentioned. Despite not scoring from the field, Ghana’s two converted penalty kicks were enough to net them a win and a draw and move them on into the knock out stage against the good old U.S. of A. On the Asian front Japan and South Korea both advanced, despite being viewed as also rans when the first ball dropped. They are both technically solid hard working teams and while they are underdogs against Paraguay and Uruguay respectively their draws are about as good as could be hoped for. Then there is Mexico, who has looked pretty good, but has the draw from hell playing first Argentina, and if they upset them, the winner of the Germany-England match. Which leaves the U.S. who I’m not talking about.

A Little Math
Of the 16 teams, 11 have never won the World Cup before. At first glance that seems like a recipe for a wide open result. At second glance though, in 18 previous world cups only 7 teams have ever won the whole thing, and 5 of them are still left. That’s more than in either of the last 2 World Cups, and those ended up with finals consisting of France v Italy and Germany v Brazil, all former winners. Moral of the story, expect the same old teams to emerge as the tournament goes deeper and deeper. It’s entirely possible that half of the final 8 and 3 of the final 4 will be previous winners. The only corner of the bracket that doesn’t have a past champion, has Spain and Portugal, two powerhouses waiting for their first breakthrough.

O.K. I Lied
After its last second heroics the U.S.A. has as good a draw as you could possibly hope for. With Ghana up first, and then the winner of the Uruguay-South Korea match the semi-finals and a possible match up with Brazil is not beyond the realm of possibility. Of course, Ghana comes first and the lone standing Africans are clearly the home team. They are a physically gifted defensive minded team, who look to counter attack in much the same way the Yanks do. The Black Stars are a better team than either Algeria or Slovenia and will not give the U.S. nearly as many scoring chances as those two teams did.

Also, my heart can’t take another ninety minutes of last second heroics.